The Myth of Christmas: Why Premier League Titles Aren’t Won in December

There is a long-held assumption among football fans and pundits that Christmas matters. Specifically, the team sitting top of the Premier League on December 25 inevitably goes on to win the title.

Bookmakers often go with this assumption. If you look at the Premier League betting odds ahead of the festive period, there’s often a bias towards the top teams. We can, of course, say that at most points during the season.

Anticipation Builds as Christmas Approaches

However, if you look at how the odds shift between August and mid-November, you see there’s a strong bias towards the mythical December 25 deadline. At the start of the 2025/2026 season, Liverpool were the bookies’ favourite to win the Premier League at 2.88.

Arsenal were next at 3.5, while Manchester City and Chelsea were coming in at 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Fast-forward to mid-November, and it’s all changed. As of November 13, 2025, Arsenal were leading the latest Premier League betting odds at 1.5. Next in line were Manchester City at 2.80, and Liverpool had dropped to odds of 9.0.

Yes, the bookmakers have the power of recent results, performance data, and team news. However, the mystique of being a Christmas chart-topper also has some bearing on the bookmakers and, perhaps more importantly, punters.

Betting action also drives the market. As more people put money on a prospect, the odds shorten. All of these factors have caused the odds on Arsenal to be more than halved.

Arsenal Aren’t a Bad Bet

At this stage of the season, it’s far from a bad bet. After 11 games, Arsenal have won eight, drawn two, and lost one. Heading towards the end of November, the Gunners are on a five-game win streak and four points clear of Manchester City.

North London’s finest are clearly on form and looking likely to be top of the Premier League by Christmas. By the logic of football folklore, this means Arsenal fans will be celebrating their first league title since the 2003/2004 season.

Of course, the Emirates Stadium faithful will remember the fateful last day of the 2023/2024 season when Arsenal lost the title to Manchester City. Arsenal were leading on December 25 that season, as they had been the previous.

However, things fell apart in the second half of the season, allowing City to clinch their fourth title. Seasoned sports bettors will be aware of this fact. Another fact you may not be aware of is that the legend of Christmas isn’t as powerful as people think.

It’s a Christmas Coin Flip

According to official figures, only 16 of the last 32 teams leading at Christmas have gone on to win the title. Arsenal dropping the bag twice in a row moved the needle back to neutral. Before that, more Christmas leaders went on to win than not.

Now, however, it’s a coin flip. Therefore, if you’re going to have a festive flutter, look carefully at the facts. Don’t be swayed by the Christmas myth alone. It can make a difference, but it’s not a given. Study the form, consider upcoming fixtures, and look at each team's relative strengths and weaknesses.

Even then, it’s hard to be certain when it comes to Premier League betting. However, as long as you can support your prediction with data, you can be content, regardless of the outcome.